Supply Chain Unpredictability for Semiconductors: How A $.040 Part Stopped Production on 1.3 Million Vehicles

Victoria Branch

By Victoria Branch, Content Writer

Last Updated April 1, 2026

9 min read

A modern pickup truck contains thousands of components. Steel frames, glass panels, wiring harnesses, and sensors move through assembly plants in carefully timed sequences, and for decades, manufacturers relied on just-in-time operations to keep those parts flowing smoothly. 

Then one inexpensive part, a semiconductor chip, halted everything.  

The COVID-19 pandemic caused supply chain disruptions worldwide, but semiconductors were affected by additional local incidents that worsened the global situation, including fires at package substrate plants, power outages in Taiwan, and geopolitical friction that affected exports. With semiconductors only created in a few countries, this created a big problem: a global shortage.  
 
During the semiconductor shortage, Ford Motors paused production because it could not source a MOSFET (Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistor) chip used in windshield wipers. The part costs about $0.40. The original disruption forced the company to delay production of roughly 40,000 F-150 trucks. Across 2021 and 2022, chip shortages contributed to more than 1.3 million vehicles in lost Ford output. 

This example illustrates a growing reality for manufacturers. Semiconductors sit at the center of the modern economy, yet the supply chains that produce them are fragile, globally dispersed, and difficult to scale quickly. 

For supply chain leaders, the question is no longer whether disruptions will occur. The question is how to design networks that can continue operating when they do. 

Related Reading: Diving Into Supply Chain Disruptions 

Why Semiconductors Matter to Every Supply Chain 

Semiconductors power nearly every modern industry. Telecommunications infrastructure, medical devices, consumer electronics, and vehicles all depend on silicon chips to operate. 

Automotive manufacturing shows how deeply embedded semiconductors have become. A typical vehicle can contain more than 1,000 chips controlling systems such as: 

  • Engine management 

  • Driver safety sensors 

  • Battery monitoring in electric vehicles 

  • Infotainment systems 

  • Windshield wipers and lighting 

When even one of those components becomes unavailable, production slows or stops. 

Volkswagen also experienced this firsthand during the pandemic. Vehicle output fell from roughly 780,000 units to around 300,000 in 2021 as suppliers struggled to secure chips. CEO Thomas Schaefer described the resulting cancellations and cost increases as a “nightmare.” 

These events revealed a critical truth. Manufacturers no longer control production timelines entirely. The true power lies in the hands of semiconductor supply chains, who influence whether factories run at full capacity. 

The Hidden Risk of Legacy Chips 

Public discussions about semiconductors often focus on advanced processors used in artificial intelligence or high-performance computing. Those chips operate at cutting-edge manufacturing nodes such as 5nm or 2nm (meaning they’re extremely powerful and fast).  

Many manufacturing disruptions occur at the opposite end of the technology spectrum. 

Mature chips produced on older fabrication processes power countless industrial systems like appliances and medical equipment. These include microcontrollers, analog chips, and MOSFET components used in vehicles, appliances, and factory equipment. These components, used in so many items throughout the supply chain, present several challenges. 

Limited Investment 

Chip manufacturers prioritize advanced technologies because they deliver higher margins and stronger long-term demand. Older manufacturing nodes generate less profit, which reduces incentives to expand capacity. 

High Volume Demand 

Industries such as automotive and industrial equipment rely heavily on mature chips. Even small increases in demand can overwhelm available production capacity. 

Long Replacement Cycles 

Switching to a different chip often requires redesigning hardware and software systems. Manufacturers cannot easily substitute another component. 

The Ford windshield wiper chip demonstrates how this dynamic plays out in practice. The component itself is inexpensive, but the system that depends on it cannot operate without it. 

The Extra Long Supply Chain Journey of Semiconductors 

Producing a semiconductor requires extraordinary technical coordination. A single chip can pass through as many as 1,200 process steps before reaching the customer. 

That journey typically involves three major stages. 

1. Design 

Many companies specialize in designing chips rather than manufacturing them, and build processors for smartphones, networking equipment, and automotive systems. These firms use electronic design automation software to create detailed circuit layouts.  

2. Fabrication 

Fabrication plants, often called fabs, transform designs into functioning chips. This stage  requires extreme precision. Engineers deposit microscopic layers of materials and etch transistor structures measured in nanometers. Leading foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Samsung, and Intel operate many of these facilities. 

3. Assembly and Testing 

After fabrication, the semiconductors travel to assembly and test facilities. Workers cut wafers into individual chips, mount them into packages, and run performance and reliability tests before shipping them to manufacturers. Many assembly and testing operations occur in Southeast Asia. 

Each stage depends on specialized facilities located in different parts of the world. A chip might travel thousands of miles during production, sometimes back and forth across the same routes. Any disruption along that route can delay the entire process. 

Related Reading: How to Prepare for Irregular Ordering 

How Global Disruptions Create Ripple Effects 

Unfortunately, in 2020 and 2021, the world saw how delicate the semiconductor supply chain could be. When one part of the chain failed, it halted the next stages, compounding delays for years.  

The chart below shows how several interconnected events over the past decade massively spread supply chain disruptions.  

Disruption Type 

What Happened 

Supply Chain Impact 

Port Congestion 

Major ports experienced heavy shipping delays during the pandemic, leaving semiconductor shipments stuck on vessels or in containers. 

Manufacturing schedules were delayed as factories waited for critical chip components to arrive. 

Factory Shutdowns 

Temporary shutdowns at semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Asia reduced chip production capacity. 

At the same time, global demand for electronics surged due to remote work and online learning, creating severe supply shortages. 

Infrastructure Failure / Natural Disaster 

Widespread power grid failures following a polar vortex in Texas in early 2021 brought local semiconductor manufacturing to a complete standstill.  

This event severely worsened the global chip shortage, particularly for the automotive market, which was already struggling to meet recovering demand. 

Material Shortages 

Critical chemicals used in semiconductor manufacturing are produced by only a small number of suppliers. 

Trade tensions between Japan and South Korea threatened supplies of key materials like hydrogen fluoride and photoresists, putting chip production at risk. 

These disruptions expose the challenge of managing highly specialized global networks. When suppliers operate thousands of miles apart, delays travel quickly across the entire system. 

Why Semiconductors Challenge Just-in-Time Supply Chains  

For decades, manufacturers optimized supply chains around cost efficiency and minimal inventory. Just-in-time operations allowed companies to reduce warehousing expenses and free up working capital. Semiconductors challenge that model, because chip supply chains are difficult to manage using traditional lean principles, and they have a highly specialized and interconnected network.  

Related Reading: What is Lean Manufacturing? 

Long Production Cycles 

Producing a semiconductor is a slow and intricate process that cannot be accelerated on demand. Each production cycle is affected by:  

  • Intricate Steps: The development of a single chip can involve up to 1,200 process steps. 

  • Time Intensity: While simple fabrication takes time, the average cycle time to produce finished wafers is roughly 12 weeks, stretching to 14–20 weeks for the most advanced chips. 

  • Inflexible Output: Because these cycles are so long, suppliers are unable to react immediately to shifts in demand, which is why the 2020 shortage took years to resolve. 

Limited Substitutes 

Manufacturers often design systems around specific chips, making it nearly impossible to swap parts quickly during crises. Replacing those components requires redesign work and testing, which is a long and detailed process for large companies.   

Related Reading: A Supplier’s Guide to Manufacturing 

Concentrated Capacity 

A significant portion of global chip production occurs in a small number of regions. Disruptions in those areas affect the entire industry.  

  • Cascading Disruptions: Because these hubs are so central, a minor event like a one-hour power outage at a Taiwanese fab can halt production for months and cause ripple effects that trigger failures across unrelated industries worldwide. 

The Talent Shortage

The industry also faces a shortage of skilled engineers, technicians, and manufacturing specialists. South Korea estimates a gap of roughly 30,000 semiconductor professionals over the next decade. 

Even companies that build critical equipment face recruitment challenges. ASML, the only supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines used in advanced chip fabrication, has expanded hiring efforts to universities beyond its traditional recruiting networks. 

Without trained workers to design, operate, and maintain fabrication equipment, new manufacturing capacity cannot reach full potential. Because of these factors, companies now reassess how much inventory and redundancy they need to maintain. 

Building Resilient Semiconductor Supply Chains 

Companies that rely on semiconductors are putting pressure on the industry to counterbalance some of these issues. In response, manufacturers are adopting several strategies to strengthen supply chain resilience.  

Strategy 

What It Means 

Why It Matters 

Regional Diversification 

Companies distribute production across multiple geographic regions rather than concentrating manufacturing in one location. 

Reduces dependence on a single country or region and lowers the risk of disruptions from geopolitical issues, natural disasters, or trade restrictions. 

Strategic Inventory Buffers 

Manufacturers maintain larger safety stock levels for critical semiconductor components. 

Helps prevent production shutdowns when short-term supply disruptions or shipping delays occur. 

Supplier Diversification 

Organizations identify and qualify multiple suppliers early in the product design process. 

Creates flexibility during shortages by allowing companies to shift sourcing more quickly when one supplier faces constraints. 

Digital Supply Chain Visibility 

Companies use analytics platforms to monitor supplier performance, demand trends, and potential risks across the supply network. 

Improves early detection of disruptions so leaders can respond before they impact production. 

Digital Twin Simulation 

Virtual models replicate supply chain networks and allow companies to simulate disruptions such as supplier delays or transportation bottlenecks. 

Enables leaders to test different scenarios and adjust production plans before real-world disruptions occur. 

Related Reading: Overlooked Strategies for Managing Volatility in the Modern Retail Supply Chain 

What Supply Chain Leaders Should Do Next 

Semiconductor disruptions revealed a structural shift in global manufacturing. Supply chains designed primarily for efficiency struggle when geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or sudden demand spikes occur. 

Luckily, supply chain leaders can take several practical steps today: 

  • Map semiconductor dependencies across products and suppliers 

  • Identify legacy components that lack alternative sources 

  • Evaluate inventory policies for critical chips 

  • Build stronger partnerships with semiconductor suppliers 

  • Invest in supply chain visibility and analytics tools 

These steps help organizations understand where vulnerabilities exist and how to reduce operational risk. 

Related Reading: Retail Is Not Facing An Inventory Problem, But An Information Deficit 

A New Era for Supply Chain Strategy 

The shortage that halted Ford trucks highlighted a broader lesson for the global economy. One inexpensive component can stop an entire production line. That reality forces companies to rethink how they design and manage supply chains. 

Semiconductors now function as foundational infrastructure for modern manufacturing. Organizations that understand this shift and invest in resilience will navigate disruptions more effectively. While risks cannot be eliminated entirely, building resilient networks that can adapt helps strengthen an otherwise fragile semiconductor supply chain. 

SPS Commerce can help with real-time insights from Max Monitor. Check it out today, contact us, and see how we can help. 

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